Satellite Remote Rensing Monitoring of the Effects of Urban Forestry on Urban Heat Island using the Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model

Ukoha, P.A., Okonkwo, S.J., Ojo, M. O. and Adewoye, A.R. (2020). Satellite Remote Rensing Monitoring of the Effects of Urban Forestry on Urban Heat Island using the Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. Nigerian Journal of Forestry 50 (2):55-61

Satellite Remote Rensing Monitoring of the Effects of Urban Forestry on Urban Heat Island using the Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model

Ibadan, located in South Western Nigeria is the third-largest city in Nigeria with an estimated population of over six million inhabitants. Cities such as Ibadan with a large population, myriads of economic activities and built infrastructures contribute to global warming through various anthropogenic activities. This research evaluated the positive effects of urban forestry on Urban Heat Island. The city was partitioned into five different microhabitats (Urban Forest, Peri-Urban Forest, Peri-Urban Sparsely Populated, Urban Farmland, Urban Densely Populated, urban Urban Sparsely, Populated, Peri-Urban, Farmland. Time-series data were extracted from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, MYD11A2 V6) satellite using javascript in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform from each of the seven micro-climate habitats. Each location had 941 observations with the start date from the 18th of February 2000 to the 4th of August 2020. The Auto-regressive Moving Average (ARIMA) was used to model variation between the Land Surface Temperature of identified microhabitats within the city and the study also model future scenarios of Land Surface Temperature of various microclimate habitats of the study area. Accuracy was measured using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Monitoring the urban heat island in seven areas of Ibadan City, an average temperatures difference of 9.40C was observed between urban forest and densely populated areas, while temperature difference between urban forest and urban sparsely populated, urban forest and peri-urban sparsely populated was 1.00C and 3.990C respectively. The study re-enforces the importance of urban forest in climate mitigation, thus spatial development planning strategy that will include green open spaces should be created for comfortability and a friendly urban environment.

Keywords: Remote Sensing, Urban Forest, microclimate, Urban Heat Island, ARMA